Wednesday, July 20, 2011

$MCHP Fading Moves to 33.50 Area.

$HOG Resistance 44.75 or Support 46.00 ?

Wednesday, July 13, 2011

$COF Trading Levels

European Debt Load Perfectly Manageable. $$

Portugal, for example, has a debt/GDP ratio of let us say 150% (it is less) ; and a budget deficit of 10% of GDP...like the USA. Assuming Portugal to be a family with a $40 000 annual income implies this family has $60 000 in debt and is spending $44 000 per year.

To get this family´s finances stabilised, all we need to do is cut expenditure by 10% or $4000 . How hard is that? We all could easily cut our family budgets by 10% ...we might not like it but we certainly would not be defying any law of physics.

(A country whose government cuts spending aggressively faces GDP contraction, but a government can also give itself a "raise" by increasing taxes...so lets assume one effect cancels the other.)

Tuesday, July 12, 2011

$NVLS Like $MCHP;Bad Outlook. $33.45 Possible.

"He said the company is reducing its third-quarter shipments estimate to a range of $300 million to $340 million, down 5 percent to 7 percent from the second quarter. Revenue is now expected in the range of $300 million to $340 million, down 3 percent to 14 percent. Analysts been forecasting $359.7 million.
He placed the earnings estimate at 60 cents to 75 cents per share. Analysts had been expecting 87 cents."
AP




Like $MCHP carefull 10% short interest.

$MCHP Not Good. $31.80 Today?

The company now sees sales down 1.5% sequentially; previous guidance was for 1%-6% sequential growth. The company also said it now sees non-GAAP EPS of 53-55 cents a share, below previous guidance of 58-62 cents.

“Our net sales activity in the June quarter did not progress as we originally expected,” CEO Steve Sanghi said in a statement. “We are seeing broad-based weakness in our business due to a number of factors. In the June quarter, our automotive business was down significantly from the March 2011 quarter due to lower automotive production activities including supply issues from other manufacturers associated with the earthquake in Japan. We also believe that some of the revenue upside that we saw in the March 2011 quarter was the result of customers being cautious and accelerating purchasing activities to minimize supply chain disruptions. Therefore, we believe we were also impacted by the correction of that inventory in the June 2011 quarter. Additionally, our consumer business was soft due to poorer global economic conditions including high unemployment, high oil prices and the resulting low consumer confidence. The computing portion of our business was also lower than our expectations as we saw reduced purchases by multiple large customers in this sector.”  Forbes

$BIDU Trading Levels


Friday, June 24, 2011

$ORCL Reasonable Results. Trading Levels.

"Oracle brought in total revenue of $10.8 billion, a hike of 12% on the same period last year, and a shade above analysts' estimates of $10.75 billion.
Excluding items, the database giant earned 75 cents a share, up from 60 cents a share in the prior year's quarter. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters were looking for earnings of 71 cents a share." 
Street.com

Very reasonable results IMO. 13 p/e on forward 1 year estimates os $2.40 gives $31.20 .

Thursday, June 23, 2011

$BBBY Will Re-Test Highs?

"Revenue at stores open at least a year rose 7 percent. That's an important retail measurement because it excludes the effects of stores that open or close during the year.
The company reported net income of $180.6 million, or 72 cents per share, for the quarter, compared with $137.6 million, or 52 cents per share, in the same quarter last year. Revenue rose nearly 10 percent to $2.11 billion.
The results beat analyst expectations of 62 cents per share on revenue of $2.07 billion, according to FactSet.
Bed Bath & Beyond said it now expects to earn 77 to 82 cents per share for the second quarter. Analysts had expected 82 cents per share.
In raising its full-year forecast, Bed Bath & Beyond said it expects earnings to rise 15 percent to 20 percent from last year. In April, the company said it expected a 10 percent to 15 percent increase." AP

Good results; 15P/E for a 10% sales grower seems reasonable which gives something in the area of $55.00 to 57.00 . (No debt...full of cash).

$ADBE Overreaction? Second Day Levels.


"Profit excluding certain costs in the second quarter, which ended June 3, rose to 55 cents a share, Adobe said in a statement yesterday. That compared with the 51-cent average analyst projection in a Bloomberg survey. Revenue increased 8.5 percent from a year earlier to $1.02 billion, topping analysts’estimates for $995.7 million.
In the current quarter, profit before some expenses will be 50 cents to 56 cents a share, Adobe said. That compares with a 54-cent average analyst prediction. Revenue will be $1 billion to $1.05 billion, the company said, while analysts had estimated $1.02 billion" BLOOMBERG

IMHO seems to me there was some overreaction

$KMX Second Day Levels.

"...posted net income of $126.3 million, or 55 cents per share for the three months ended May 31. That's up from $101.1 million, or 44 cents per share, a year ago. Earnings included a 3 cents per share gain related to its financing arm.Revenue rose 18 percent to $2.68 billion on strong used car sales and higher prices. Sales at stores open at least one year increased 6 percent.
Analysts surveyed by FactSet forecast adjusted earnings of 47 cents per share on $2.52 billion in revenue"

Monday, June 13, 2011

Adam H. Grimes Seminar on Entry Techniques. $study

Very interesting seminar. This is about one hour long , but took me about two hours or more to listen since its very rich in interesting trading statistics/observations that I had to keep stopping/rewinding so as to write down salient points such as:

- Only 4 types of trades exist really. (5 minutes 30 seconds)
- Difference of and proper use of "TippingPoint" and "Scaling In" entries. (10 minutes 20 seconds)
- Clarification/consistency of your time-frame. (19 minutes 30 seconds)
- Relation between the open and the day´s range. ( 34th minute )




Note that he is a swing trader, not an intra-day trader...trades based on daily bars...but honestly a lot if not all that he says can be "brought down" to a lower time frame.