Thursday, January 13, 2011

Good Trades Have a Logical Story Line. Overnight Positions Have Missing Chapters. $SPY $ADSK $study

-I had a number of reasonable trades yesterday. The common theme was I could explain the reason for the trade in a logical manner, a "good story", and hopefully the market would agree with the ending I had in mind.




-For example the following $ADSK trade. Citi had downgraded the stock( http://finance.yahoo.com/news/A-60Second-Guide-To-What-siliconalley-2380963544.html?x=0&.v=2 )and it opened down more than 2%. It recovered valiantly to the point that I thought it was too much. I shorted at 40.71 with a stop at 41.02 . My "story line" played out fine. It would be invalidated should ADSK trade over 41.02 .
-Importantly if my story was wrong I would just stop reading it or leave the cinema at my stop level.

-The problem with overnight trades is you cannot tell a good story because ...there will be missing chapters. The story takes on a plot out of your control. You cannot leave the cinema till it is too late. I came in short SPY ( http://jpotrading.blogspot.com/2011/01/yesterdays-trades-spy-de-bidu.html )and by the morning the market had a written a couple of chapters that left me with a loss. End of story; I either liked it or not.

-So no overnight trades please. You have no edge.